Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1890 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1890 EWR 07:15 → RDU 08:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2359 EWR 20:19 → RDU 22:05 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1890 United Flight history →	EWR 07:15	RDU 08:56	10%	4%	1.0%	90%
UA 1410 United	EWR 11:03	RDU 12:50	17%	7%	1.0%	no record
YX 3514 Republic	EWR 15:17	RDU 16:49	18%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 1975 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	RDU 18:43	28%	14%	1.0%	72%
UA 2359 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	RDU 22:05	36%	15%	0.9%	73%
DL 5124 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:30	RDU 11:18	14%	12%	5.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON