tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Rochester on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet 3h 52m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:22AA 2742 7h 22m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 1h 04m Chicago ORD 08:19 → ROC 11:11AA 4104 · flown by Envoy 5h 41m 90% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511 5h 31m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573 2h 29m Detroit DTW 21:29 → ROC 22:45DL 1418 5h 39m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 2h 56m Chicago ORD 14:00 → ROC 16:42UA 1239 7h 22m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 2h 42m Detroit DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor 5h 53m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788 2h 01m Chicago ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:27UA 1568 6h 42m 85% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 47m Charlotte CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:22AA 2742 4h 52m 74% 64%
UnitedDetails → EWR 20:08 → IAD 21:33UA 2677 1h 04m Dulles IAD 22:37 → ROC 23:58UA 4394 · flown by GoJet 3h 50m 66% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON