Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1115 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1115 EWR 07:50 → RSW 10:53 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2188 EWR 18:59 → RSW 22:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1115 United Flight history →	EWR 07:50	RSW 10:53	13%	4%	4.4%	88%
UA 1810 United	EWR 12:02	RSW 15:16	17%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 1832 United Flight history →	EWR 15:32	RSW 18:40	23%	10%	1.9%	77%
UA 2188 United	EWR 18:59	RSW 22:07	28%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON