Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2766 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2766 EWR 07:00 → SAN 09:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1102 EWR 20:04 → SAN 22:57 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2766 United	EWR 07:00	SAN 09:57	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 09:37	SAN 12:20	19%	6%	0.7%	88%
AS 578 Alaska	EWR 16:33	SAN 19:06	27%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 17:03	SAN 19:51	29%	11%	0.7%	78%
UA 1102 United	EWR 20:04	SAN 22:57	36%	12%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	53m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930	7h 38m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	93%	77%
United Details →	EWR 12:18 → DEN 14:23UA 2455	1h 32m Denver	DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281	8h 02m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON