tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:20 SAT 15:21 18% 7% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 4h 00m Detroit DTW 11:50 → SAT 13:59DL 2458 8h 59m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 05m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 58m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 91% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 43m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → SAT 10:47AA 2889 6h 47m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570 10h 32m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 8h 35m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 08:15 → SFO 11:29UA 1777 49m San Francisco SFO 12:18 → SAT 17:54UA 2365 10h 39m 69% 54%
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782 47m Houston IAH 21:42 → SAT 22:44UA 2198 5h 50m 66% 49%
AmericanDetails → EWR 18:32 → ORD 19:48AA 1691 1h 20m Chicago ORD 21:08 → SAT 23:59AA 431 6h 27m 57% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON