Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1636 at 11:58 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1636 United	EWR 11:58	SAV 14:21	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 2645 United Flight history →	EWR 20:47	SAV 23:07	31%	15%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 10:45 → BOS 12:13DL 5764 · flown by Republic	2h 18m Boston	BOS 14:31 → SAV 17:22DL 5647 · flown by Republic	6h 37m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:47 → SAV 10:54DL 3054	4h 54m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → SAV 14:50DL 1067	6h 20m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAV 10:52DL 1119	4h 52m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SAV 18:59DL 527	6h 59m	98%	82%
American Details →	EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:21AA 1697	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 19:15 → SAV 20:32AA 5382 · flown by PSA	6h 59m	100%	81%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SAV 14:21UA 1612	8h 21m	98%	78%
United Details →	EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204	2h 25m Houston	IAH 17:59 → SAV 21:33UA 6111 · flown by Mesa	8h 57m	90%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	46m Chicago	ORD 17:14 → SAV 20:31UA 1191	5h 46m	56%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON