Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 373 at 09:56 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–44%.

Safest bet that day AS 373 EWR 09:56 → SEA 12:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 296 EWR 17:41 → SEA 20:40 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:56	SEA 12:51	25%	4%	1.8%	96%worse than usual
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	28%	5%	1.8%	74%
UA 1814 United	EWR 15:07	SEA 18:00	32%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 2693 United	EWR 19:38	SEA 22:43	34%	13%	1.0%	no record
AS 296 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:41	SEA 20:40	44%	13%	1.5%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 18m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON