tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087 8h 52m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 1h 24m Denver DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256 8h 27m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 9h 00m 89% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 50m Chicago ORD 09:32 → SJC 12:08UA 307 9h 08m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 11h 12m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 11:02 → PHX 13:17AA 2825 3h 17m Phoenix PHX 16:34 → SJC 18:40AA 2094 10h 38m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:56 → SEA 12:51AS 373 47m Seattle SEA 13:38 → SJC 15:45AS 1673 8h 49m 59% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON