Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1009 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1009 EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 679 EWR 16:37 → SLC 19:36 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1009 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:15	SLC 10:13	12%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 646 United	EWR 07:26	SLC 10:26	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 679 Delta	EWR 16:37	SLC 19:36	25%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	7h 20m	88%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:42 → MSP 13:41DL 2864	49m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → SLC 16:21DL 2658	6h 39m	79%	71%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	50m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 05m	80%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON