tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1926 United EWR 18:39 SMF 21:41 33% 14% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 54m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:45 → LAX 13:41UA 2679 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 10h 21m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758 1h 37m Denver DEN 11:46 → SMF 13:25UA 2673 8h 35m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:00 → LAX 18:42UA 2238 2h 32m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 9h 48m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 51m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 90% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 12:18 → DEN 14:23UA 2455 1h 35m Denver DEN 15:58 → SMF 17:35UA 1208 8h 17m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 17:10 → LAX 20:20UA 2641 54m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 38m 64% 56%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 48m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → SMF 19:24UA 1862 7h 39m 52% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON