Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 06:42	SNA 09:35	8%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:35	SNA 17:26	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SNA 20:06	23%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:25 → SNA 12:56UA 1320	8h 06m	95%	81%
United Details →	EWR 12:18 → DEN 14:23UA 2455	1h 42m Denver	DEN 16:05 → SNA 17:29UA 1497	8h 11m	95%	78%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	58m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304	8h 21m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON