Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2772 at 08:37 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2772 United Flight history →	EWR 08:37	SRQ 11:31	20%	7%	1.2%	66%
UA 1324 United Flight history →	EWR 20:09	SRQ 23:15	30%	13%	1.5%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	5h 48m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	7h 57m	98%	80%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	9h 12m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997	7h 06m	95%	74%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452	7h 24m	98%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON