Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1529 at 07:00, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1529 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	STT 11:07	19%	6%	0.9%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 29m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → STT 12:58UA 1443	6h 58m	97%	84%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	9h 43m	96%	79%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	8h 54m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 49m	95%	71%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	1h 20m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 31m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON