Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 35m	92%	71%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	6h 44m	93%	57%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	3h 46m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	7h 40m	93%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	5h 14m	69%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON