Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, G4 3026 at 11:14, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 3026 Allegiant	EWR 11:14	TYS 13:15	19%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont	5h 38m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148	6h 16m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817	4h 49m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → TYS 22:29DL 1437	7h 08m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → TYS 10:22DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor	4h 26m	92%	78%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TYS 10:42UA 4257 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 42m	97%	76%
American Details →	EWR 12:33 → DFW 15:09AA 1796	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → TYS 21:04AA 5346 · flown by PSA	8h 31m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 17:06 → DTW 19:00DL 2573	59m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TYS 21:41DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	4h 35m	73%	49%
United Details →	EWR 07:50 → DEN 10:09UA 1758	54m Denver	DEN 11:03 → TYS 15:59UA 1241	8h 09m	49%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON