Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3368 EYW 18:25 → CLT 20:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1816 EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3368 Envoy	EYW 18:25	CLT 20:54	24%	8%	3.9%	no record
AA 3822 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 16:37	CLT 19:11	24%	9%	3.5%	86%
AA 1816 American Flight history →	EYW 14:15	CLT 16:38	31%	10%	4.4%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON