Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4389 Republic	EYW 12:13	DCA 15:19	15%	5%	6.4%	no record
YX 4461 Republic	EYW 14:29	DCA 17:36	18%	6%	5.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	7h 06m	96%	76%
American Details →	EYW 16:37 → CLT 19:11AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	7h 16m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:09 → ATL 20:17DL 2168	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 43m	90%	71%
Delta Details →	EYW 13:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1472	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 49m	98%	71%
American Details →	EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38AA 1816	3h 54m Charlotte	CLT 20:32 → DCA 22:10AA 2432	7h 55m	92%	68%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:48 → ATL 13:53DL 1281	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 42m	90%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EYW 16:19 → ORD 18:45UA 2304	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	6h 35m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON