tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414 5h 47m 88% 70%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:48 → ATL 13:53DL 1281 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 16:13 → DFW 17:32DL 374 6h 44m 93% 68%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:33 → PHL 17:58AA 4509 · flown by Republic 2h 39m Philadelphia PHL 20:37 → DFW 22:56AA 1115 9h 23m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → EYW 18:09 → ATL 20:17DL 2168 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → DFW 23:59DL 818 6h 50m 95% 64%
DeltaDetails → EYW 13:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1472 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827 5h 59m 90% 60%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:37 → CLT 19:11AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 21:50 → DFW 23:39AA 1256 8h 02m 94% 59%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38AA 1816 3h 14m Charlotte CLT 19:52 → DFW 21:44AA 1698 8h 29m 92% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EYW 16:19 → ORD 18:45UA 2304 1h 05m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 17m 72% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON