Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 3502 at 14:13, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3502 Republic	EYW 14:13	EWR 17:42	35%	20%	4.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 26m	92%	68%
United Details →	EYW 16:19 → ORD 18:45UA 2304	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	8h 34m	90%	66%
Delta Details →	EYW 13:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1472	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 56m	98%	60%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:09 → ATL 20:17DL 2168	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	5h 37m	83%	55%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:48 → ATL 13:53DL 1281	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 06m	89%	55%
American Details →	EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38AA 1816	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 18:48 → EWR 20:52AA 997	6h 37m	86%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON