Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2304 at 16:19, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2304 United Flight history →	EYW 16:19	ORD 18:45	35%	11%	2.6%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EYW 14:33 → PHL 17:58AA 4509 · flown by Republic	3h 04m Philadelphia	PHL 21:02 → ORD 22:29AA 2155	8h 56m	100%	75%
American Details →	EYW 16:37 → CLT 19:11AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → ORD 23:36AA 627	7h 59m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:09 → ATL 20:17DL 2168	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 44m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894	5h 37m	87%	68%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:48 → ATL 13:53DL 1281	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 24m	91%	58%
Delta Details →	EYW 13:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1472	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:31 → ORD 20:41DL 1139	7h 43m	99%	58%
American Details →	EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38AA 1816	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	6h 36m	85%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON