Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4509 at 14:33, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 14:33	PHL 17:58	19%	7%	3.3%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	6h 25m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:09 → ATL 20:17DL 2168	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 50m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:48 → ATL 13:53DL 1281	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	8h 03m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	EYW 13:58 → ATL 16:07DL 1472	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	7h 44m	100%	72%
American Details →	EYW 16:37 → CLT 19:11AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 21:31 → PHL 23:18AA 1827	6h 41m	94%	71%
American Details →	EYW 14:15 → CLT 16:38AA 1816	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → PHL 20:01AA 423	5h 46m	77%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON