Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, SY 3009 at 09:25, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


SY 3009 Sun Country	FAI 09:25	PDX 14:24	20%	6%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → PDX 10:35DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27DL 1061	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → PDX 22:00DL 3913 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	86%	68%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 02m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → PDX 13:08AS 488	6h 37m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON