Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 22–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 92 FAI 01:22 → SEA 05:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 97 FAI 16:04 → SEA 20:38 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 92 Alaska	FAI 01:22	SEA 05:49	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1649 Alaska	FAI 12:09	SEA 16:41	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2408 Delta Flight history →	FAI 01:35	SEA 06:16	23%	6%	0.9%	76%
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	25%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	26%	7%	0.9%	79%
AS 97 Alaska	FAI 16:04	SEA 20:38	27%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON