tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 3487 at 07:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3487 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 07:30 PDX 09:27 10% 4% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → FAT 17:40 → SLC 20:24DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373 4h 58m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 14:16 → SEA 16:21AS 384 3h 01m Seattle SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon 6h 01m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34UA 5338 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 10:27 → PDX 12:17UA 2624 5h 47m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SAN 07:24AS 3402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 43m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01AA 6275 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → PDX 13:44AA 2684 7h 29m 95% 77%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 10:42 → SAN 11:58AS 2210 · flown by Horizon 3h 40m San Diego SAN 15:38 → PDX 18:11AS 1321 7h 29m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → FAT 09:00 → DEN 12:34UA 5787 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255 6h 15m 89% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FAT 10:21 → SFO 11:25UA 5737 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851 4h 13m 74% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON