Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 3402 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 3402 FAT 06:00 → SAN 07:24 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 3021 FAT 19:06 → SAN 20:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	13%	6%	0.9%	92%
WN 1902 Southwest	FAT 08:02	SAN 09:35	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:58	SAN 13:26	22%	11%	0.9%	74%
OO 3052 SkyWest	FAT 10:09	SAN 11:37	23%	10%	0.8%	no record
OO 3021 SkyWest	FAT 19:06	SAN 20:34	25%	11%	1.3%	no record
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON