Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 3345 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day AS 3345 FAT 07:12 → SEA 09:38 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 394 FAT 19:25 → SEA 21:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:12	SEA 09:38	17%	5%	0.8%	74%
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 14:16	SEA 16:21	26%	4%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AS 394 Alaska	FAT 19:25	SEA 21:34	37%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 2376 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 11:23	SEA 13:40	27%	7%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON