Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 16:34, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	6h 11m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	1h 49m Portland	PDX 15:38 → DEN 18:37AS 1375	5h 27m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 13:13 → DEN 16:43AS 639	5h 15m	77%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON