Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2283 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FCA 13:10	PDX 13:49	8%	3%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon	5h 48m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	FCA 14:10 → SAN 16:16AS 2187 · flown by Horizon	1h 42m San Diego	SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392	7h 21m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 08:38 → PDX 09:32AS 279	3h 59m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	47m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	3h 22m	62%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON