Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1168 at 05:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 1168 FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest B6 1798 FLL 20:55 → ATL 22:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1168 Delta Flight history →	FLL 05:23	ATL 07:11	8%	2%	1.9%	97%
DL 1215 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:33	ATL 08:27	12%	2%	1.8%	94%
DL 1326 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:40	ATL 09:33	14%	4%	2.2%	90%
DL 1603 Delta	FLL 07:30	ATL 09:24	15%	3%	2.1%	no record
F9 2173 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 06:40	ATL 09:00	19%	5%	1.8%	81%
F9 3013 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 00:09	ATL 02:02	21%	7%	2.1%	46%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:32	ATL 17:42	23%	9%	1.9%	71%
DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:04	ATL 12:54	23%	6%	3.6%	81%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	FLL 13:28	ATL 15:32	24%	9%	3.7%	78%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	FLL 14:30	ATL 16:34	25%	10%	2.1%	57%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:31	ATL 20:39	27%	10%	2.0%	69%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	FLL 12:10	ATL 14:02	30%	7%	6.1%	78%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	FLL 17:00	ATL 19:01	32%	11%	2.7%	61%
B6 1698 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:03	ATL 11:59	35%	11%	1.8%	76%worse than usual
F9 1123 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:39	ATL 20:04	41%	15%	2.1%	45%
B6 2098 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:52	ATL 19:09	46%	18%	2.2%	41%
B6 1798 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	ATL 22:55	46%	19%	2.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON