Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 291 at 09:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 291 FLL 09:26 → AUS 11:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2271 FLL 20:59 → AUS 23:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 291 Southwest	FLL 09:26	AUS 11:34	11%	4%	1.8%	no record
B6 2371 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:45	AUS 11:48	22%	8%	2.1%	78%
B6 2271 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	AUS 23:08	36%	13%	1.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON