Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1907 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1907 FLL 05:34 → BNA 06:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2581 FLL 20:55 → BNA 22:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1907 Southwest	FLL 05:34	BNA 06:58	6%	1%	2.2%	no record
WN 4835 Southwest	FLL 11:11	BNA 12:38	21%	5%	2.0%	no record
WN 573 Southwest	FLL 17:51	BNA 19:18	32%	9%	1.4%	no record
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	33%	15%	6.5%	57%
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	33%	16%	2.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON