Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 690 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–45%.

Safest bet that day B6 690 FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 70 FLL 18:34 → BOS 21:51 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 690 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:00	BOS 09:14	10%	4%	3.4%	93%
G4 3472 Allegiant	FLL 05:54	BOS 09:10	16%	6%	3.7%	no record
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	BOS 14:48	20%	8%	6.5%	70%
B6 270 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:57	BOS 13:11	24%	9%	3.7%	36%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	FLL 18:44	BOS 22:04	26%	10%	2.6%	69%
B6 470 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:25	BOS 00:47	40%	18%	1.9%	63%
B6 70 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:34	BOS 21:51	45%	20%	3.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON