tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 9h 23m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 54m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 85% 70%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 11:25 → JFK 14:20B6 2102 2h 56m New York JFK 17:16 → BUR 20:35B6 358 12h 10m 95% 64%
AmericanDetails → FLL 15:12 → DFW 17:28AA 1390 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 9h 46m 95% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 8h 10m 73% 56%
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:31 → DFW 19:50AA 1373 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 7h 27m 63% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON