Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1912 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1912 FLL 06:35 → BWI 09:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2094 FLL 12:30 → BWI 14:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1912 Southwest	FLL 06:35	BWI 09:13	6%	2%	2.8%	no record
WN 1402 Southwest	FLL 10:36	BWI 13:06	21%	4%	2.7%	no record
WN 1136 Southwest	FLL 14:46	BWI 17:25	26%	8%	2.6%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:23	BWI 13:07	26%	8%	4.0%	72%
WN 4456 Southwest	FLL 12:41	BWI 15:20	27%	7%	7.4%	no record
WN 522 Southwest	FLL 17:11	BWI 19:50	29%	7%	2.3%	no record
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	38%	15%	2.3%	36%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	40%	17%	6.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON