Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2067 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2067 FLL 11:22 → CLE 14:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1590 FLL 20:55 → CLE 23:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2067 United Flight history →	FLL 11:22	CLE 14:07	15%	6%	3.6%	92%
UA 2725 United Flight history →	FLL 14:59	CLE 17:54	18%	9%	2.0%	79%
F9 1045 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:31	CLE 14:36	22%	9%	6.0%	72%
B6 1590 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLE 23:55	33%	13%	2.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON