Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1474 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1474 FLL 06:04 → CLT 08:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 2149 FLL 20:55 → CLT 23:05 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1474 American Flight history →	FLL 06:04	CLT 08:04	10%	3%	1.9%	94%
AA 2087 American Flight history →	FLL 09:03	CLT 11:06	14%	5%	2.0%	93%
AA 3103 American	FLL 11:07	CLT 13:14	23%	8%	4.4%	no record
AA 1652 American	FLL 18:22	CLT 20:28	28%	8%	2.3%	no record
F9 1984 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:04	CLT 19:12	33%	13%	2.7%	65%
B6 749 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	CLT 14:15	37%	16%	7.1%	61%
B6 2149 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	CLT 23:05	41%	16%	2.4%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON