Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 987 at 10:02, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 987 Southwest	FLL 10:02	DAL 12:06	19%	4%	3.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:47 → DAL 13:50DL 512	7h 10m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → DAL 09:16DL 441	4h 53m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 50m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 53m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON