Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 1480 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 1480 FLL 06:30 → DCA 09:04 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1880 FLL 18:47 → DCA 21:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	11%	3%	2.9%	92%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:23	DCA 14:08	20%	7%	6.7%	86%
WN 1916 Southwest	FLL 15:31	DCA 18:09	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	28%	13%	1.9%	57%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	30%	14%	3.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON