Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1311 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1311 FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1917 FLL 12:11 → DEN 14:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1311 United Flight history →	FLL 08:00	DEN 10:21	10%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 204 United Flight history →	FLL 10:13	DEN 12:29	14%	5%	1.3%	93%
UA 1417 United Flight history →	FLL 15:30	DEN 18:18	21%	6%	1.0%	78%
WN 1917 Southwest	FLL 12:11	DEN 14:38	24%	6%	7.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	51m Houston	IAH 09:36 → DEN 11:15UA 8120	6h 15m	80%	68%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	5h 54m	78%	61%
American Details →	FLL 07:34 → DFW 09:49AA 1712	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:48AA 2359	6h 14m	83%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON