Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2290 FLL 20:23 → DTW 23:27 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	7%	2%	2.1%	92%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:00	DTW 23:02	19%	6%	1.0%	64%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 17:20	DTW 20:29	19%	8%	2.0%	70%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	DTW 14:26	21%	6%	4.3%	83%
F9 2008 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 21:40	DTW 00:56	25%	9%	1.8%	54%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	27%	11%	6.3%	77%
B6 2290 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:23	DTW 23:27	28%	10%	1.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON