Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2299 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2299 FLL 06:31 → EWR 09:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 106 FLL 18:40 → EWR 21:43 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2299 United	FLL 06:31	EWR 09:36	8%	3%	4.5%	no record
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:13	EWR 11:12	18%	6%	4.9%	65%
UA 210 United Flight history →	FLL 10:56	EWR 14:00	19%	10%	5.2%	90%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	FLL 10:00	EWR 13:03	21%	8%	5.1%	83%
UA 279 United Flight history →	FLL 17:24	EWR 20:35	27%	14%	2.4%	69%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	FLL 12:39	EWR 15:43	28%	13%	7.3%	78%
UA 1800 United Flight history →	FLL 15:52	EWR 18:59	29%	17%	2.4%	61%
B6 9040 JetBlue	FLL 10:45	EWR 13:46	31%	12%	6.1%	no record
UA 460 United	FLL 14:34	EWR 17:36	33%	17%	3.0%	no record
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	EWR 23:58	33%	17%	2.9%	51%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:40	EWR 21:43	41%	20%	4.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON