Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1421 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:15	IAD 14:49	18%	5%	7.7%	89%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	30%	12%	2.8%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	7h 53m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 33m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082	5h 47m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → IAD 10:00DL 1324	4h 37m	92%	83%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 18m Houston	IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904	9h 14m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	6h 55m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 41m	99%	78%
United Details →	FLL 10:13 → DEN 12:29UA 204	1h 24m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	9h 09m	93%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341	49m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	4h 51m	69%	56%
United Details →	FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403	48m Chicago	ORD 19:48 → IAD 22:33UA 304	6h 13m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON