Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 2702 FLL 18:40 → JFK 21:36 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2165 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:06	JFK 10:00	8%	3%	4.0%	90%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 08:07	JFK 11:05	18%	6%	3.3%	72%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:56	JFK 12:52	19%	7%	3.8%	95%worse than usual
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:12	JFK 13:59	22%	7%	6.8%	72%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	FLL 17:25	JFK 20:27	26%	8%	2.9%	72%
B6 1902 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 22:15	JFK 01:18	30%	14%	2.7%	64%
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:25	JFK 14:20	35%	14%	5.7%	64%
B6 2702 JetBlue	FLL 18:40	JFK 21:36	42%	15%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON