Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:41 → LGA 21:38 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 09:57	6%	2%	4.5%	94%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:10	LGA 09:07	10%	4%	4.3%	83%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:33	LGA 12:27	17%	6%	4.5%	74%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	18%	9%	7.1%	70%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:35	LGA 18:59	19%	8%	2.6%	68%
AA 1135 American	FLL 12:11	LGA 15:15	25%	10%	8.3%	no record
AA 2968 American	FLL 16:04	LGA 19:07	28%	10%	3.8%	no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:06	LGA 14:59	30%	14%	7.7%	58%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:00	LGA 22:59	31%	13%	2.5%	55%
B6 672 JetBlue	FLL 18:41	LGA 21:38	34%	14%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON