tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4562 at 10:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4562 Southwest FLL 10:06 MCI 12:30 17% 4% 2.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 24m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741 8h 23m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 20m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 8h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 22m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657 8h 12m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → MCI 10:07DL 2908 5h 44m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 6h 39m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023 7h 22m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:20 → PHX 08:14AA 441 1h 36m Phoenix PHX 09:50 → MCI 14:47AA 1622 9h 27m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:26 → ORD 14:55UA 1755 57m Chicago ORD 15:52 → MCI 17:36UA 664 6h 10m 70% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON