tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4979 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4979 Southwest FLL 07:16 MDW 09:30 9% 2% 2.1% no record
WN 153 Southwest FLL 15:41 MDW 18:00 27% 8% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417 6h 19m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 29m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 7h 46m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 43m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728 5h 26m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:27 → DTW 14:26DL 655 3h 41m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 8h 02m 98% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON