tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 673 Delta Flight history → FLL 14:47 MSP 17:39 16% 8% 1.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 8h 17m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 3h 29m Denver DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732 9h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 5h 55m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 24m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697 8h 11m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 8h 39m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05DL 800 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 12:35 → MSP 18:11DL 914 11h 18m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165 1h 35m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 44m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:29 → LGA 14:24DL 2465 3h 41m New York LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:44DL 2313 10h 15m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 57m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 6h 21m 70% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON