Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 2823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:16	MSY 22:24	30%	17%	1.9%	59%
B6 1823 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 14:19	MSY 15:24	33%	20%	3.3%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 14m	97%	84%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	3h 10m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 14m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	5h 53m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	FLL 12:10 → ATL 14:02DL 1271	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678	7h 24m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	53m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSY 09:50DL 1424	4h 17m	85%	73%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:35 → MSY 23:05DL 2224	7h 05m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → MSY 20:29DL 1450	6h 59m	97%	73%
American Details →	FLL 08:46 → PHL 11:46AA 444	1h 34m Philadelphia	PHL 13:20 → MSY 15:14AA 1701	7h 28m	92%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FLL 11:04 → ATL 12:54DL 1094	51m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	4h 13m	65%	52%
Delta Details →	FLL 17:00 → ATL 19:01DL 1413	54m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → MSY 20:29DL 1450	4h 29m	65%	48%
American Details →	FLL 15:12 → DFW 17:28AA 1390	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:42 → MSY 20:21AA 2237	6h 09m	74%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON