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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 41m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 01m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 15m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:20 → PHX 08:14AA 441 2h 32m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 8h 52m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 1h 04m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 91% 77%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:34 → DFW 09:49AA 1712 2h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 9h 00m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:10 → ATL 14:02DL 1271 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 20m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → FLL 17:00 → IAH 18:56UA 1696 1h 35m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 7h 55m 91% 69%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 8h 12m 80% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → FLL 17:40 → SLC 20:41DL 745 54m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 7h 43m 71% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON