Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2809 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2809 FLL 06:58 → ORD 09:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 863 FLL 21:05 → ORD 23:44 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2809 United	FLL 06:58	ORD 09:15	11%	4%	2.0%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:34	ORD 10:53	18%	5%	2.0%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	22%	8%	1.3%	66%
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	26%	9%	7.5%	87%worse than usual
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	28%	9%	1.3%	52%
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:54	ORD 15:27	32%	12%	6.7%	69%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:24	ORD 15:48	33%	11%	5.1%	89%worse than usual
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	37%	13%	7.4%	71%
B6 863 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:05	ORD 23:44	39%	16%	3.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON